Chinese state media has been touting Beijing’s growing dominance in rare earth minerals as an unassailable strategic advantage. They highlight China’s roughly 70% share of global mining and over 90% capacity in refining heavy rare earths. However, observers argue that the U.S. and its allies are making meaningful progress behind the scenes. Investments in new mines, processing facilities, and recycling initiatives have expanded outside China. Environmental standards and smarter industrial policies in Western nations are closing the gap. While China remains a powerful player, its export leverage can inadvertently accelerate foreign production and diversification efforts—reducing the long-term effectiveness of its dominance.